|How it is
I think you could
say 30 year treasures are up. Gold is up. Dollar is
down. Stocks are down. There should be a regression
toward the mean of those paramters over time - looks
like the Yen is here to stay, increasing their
purchasing power for US goods. The Japanese should be
America's back on top. The Euro isn't a country.
China relies on us for a market, their productivity
is contingient on us. They will develop their own
markets in time; where we have our own market and we
have a highly productive workforce.
Realestate is not
good. It still has to unwind more. - Jobs outlook is
good; for jobs that cannot be exported.
The market's up
30%, everyone is saying the sky is falling but
things are good.
The Chinese got
dollars, if they don't buy treasuries - they
can buy goods and services.
I wouldn't bet on
the Euro - 'cause they're
not even a country. Nothing to back it.
Shake Out 9/15/08
Well, it's a shake
out - and we'll see.
It will be a long
time before real-estate goes up. Nobody is going to
want to invest in mortgages.
This will probably
not effect equity, however. - It will probably not
be too bad for the dollar, either. - This whole
thing does show gold is a safe haven during extreme
The beauty of
this is oil is down. And that's good for
No telling how
long oil will stay down. - It is certainly down 30%
The problem is
they deregulated banks and allowed the investment
houses to get into mortgages - I don't see either
Obama or McCain addressing this seriously - both
promise expenditures that won't happen - so both
seem irrelevant to the problems facing the US.
Misuse of the
dollar by the Fed and the Treasury - to,
unsuccessfully, click up the Dow averages have left
investors with no place to hide.
This has created a
series of bubbles, in real estate, oil and gold;
when in fact a strong dollar should be a way to
The trouble being
that each of these bubbles are not sufficient in
size for everyone to hide in.
You have to put
your dollars in something and these various areas
are insufficient. Its a real mess.
Policy Works to Support World Hunger 4/28/08
Treasury policy for supports of the
dollar actually function to weaken the US dollar,
This translates as a cause of starvation
in the world. While, at first, the trend towards the
weak dollar began forcing investment dollars into hard
commodity markets such as gold an silver; now
investment is pushed for soft commodities. Because of
the push for soft commodities, the continuing
protection of investment principles causes a rise in
world food price. The harm from the result of such
policy becomes a real problem on world food stocks.
What about swords?
Investing in swords, more like a hard
commodity in this case, is perhaps less harmful. -Less
harmful and less volatile for sure. It's a little
moral thing. :-}
prices rising... 10/21/2007
The economy is fairly flat - no
inflation except with the very rich, specifically, the
fine arts. Even Googling the fine arts would show
Prices for fine arts are going up.
Prices for swords, the better swords and the sword
market generally, therefore, will rise.
the economy? 9/24/07
Really bad - Things are bad. Bad
government right now - they're running it into the
I just read Cheney's portfolio; he has a
money manger who is apparently no good, losing his
money right and left. Regardless, he's betting against
the dollar - foreign bonds, foreign funds - he's
betting on the US going down.
The question is whether gold is or is
not a form of money. It was, so were sea
shells. If it is not money then it is simply
another commodity and will not act as a reserve
currency as some believe it will. That said
everyone should have some gold.
Warm regards Don
March 5th, '07
The Yen is appreciating rapidly.
Therefore, as swords are tied to the Yen, swords are
Gold is down. When the Yen was down,
borrowing allowed investment in the gold market. Now
that the the Yen is going up, gold is being dumped to
pay back the borrowed Yen. Gold should otherwise be
good, but it is troubled by the rise of the Yen.
Therefore swords are heading up.
With the market
high, The American economy so strong - what can
happen? The Chinese have all those dollars, -they'll
have to buy something. What will they buy?
For swords, the
Yen is weak, weak against the Euro. I would say the
Europeans are in good position to buy swords.
Bull-Market for Swords
Inflation risk and
low interest rates bode well for antiquity values.
liquidity in the money supply sponsored by the Fed
threaten inflationary pressures when the recovery
starts, possibly even sometime next year. The
year-over-year growth of the monetary base in
October was 8.5%.
extremely low interest rates are good for
antiquities markets. The lost-opportunity cost of
placing cash elsewhere is now almost nil. In other
words, an antiquity need only appreciate a small
percentage each year to keep pace with the interest
rates now available.
recession fears, prices have not yet moved up.
November 10, 2001)
what is meant by "Two-horned
situation looks like a two-horned
bull-market for swords. That is,
low-interest with inflation risk.
with the World Trade-Center and the
military mobilization, National Guard
walking around airports, etc, who's going
pay for that? The costs are in the
billions. There are only two ways out of
it - raise taxes or print money.
This is inflationary risk.
three years ago when the market was rising
20%, a man would have to have been a fool
to put hard investment money in antiques
over the stock market. Today however, at
2.5% in a money market fund, a person who
wants a special thing or collectable has
no reason not to go ahead.
money from, say, bonds into that sword you
want and have something you can enjoy;
-this is perfectly smart at this time."