| D. J. van der Waden Group
(© Copyright WadenGroup 2001)
Two Horned Bull-Market for
Swords
Inflation risk and low interest
rates bode well for antiquity values.
Infusions of liquidity in the money
supply sponsored by the Fed threaten inflationary pressures when the recovery
starts, possibly even sometime next year. The year-over-year growth of
the monetary base in October was 8.5%.
Moreover, extremely low interest
rates are good for antiquities markets. The lost-opportunity cost of placing
cash elsewhere is now almost nil. In other words, an antiquity need only
appreciate a small percentage each year to keep pace with the interest
rates now available.
Because of recession fears, prices
have not yet moved up.
(Update: November 10, 2001)
| Don, what is meant by "Two-horned
Bull-Market"?
"The situation looks like a two-horned
bull-market for swords. That is, low-interest with inflation risk.
What with the World Trade-Center
and the military mobilization, National Guard walking around airports,
etc, who's going pay for that? The costs are in the billions. There are
only two ways out of it - raise taxes or print money. This is inflationary
risk.
Look, three years ago when the
market was rising 20%, a man would have to have been a fool to put hard
investment money in antiques over the stock market. Today however, at 2.5%
in a money market fund, a person who wants a special thing or collectable
has no reason not to go ahead.
Putting money from, say, bonds
into that sword you want and have something you can enjoy; -this is perfectly
smart at this time." |
February
18, 2007
With the market high, The American
economy so strong - what can happen? The Chinese have all those dollars,
-they'll have to buy something. What will they buy?
For swords, the Yen is weak, weak
against the Euro. I would say the Europeans are in good position to buy
swords.
March 5th, '07
The Yen is appreciating rapidly. Therefore, as swords
are tied to the Yen, swords are appreciating rapidly.
Gold is down. When the Yen was down, borrowing allowed
investment in the gold market. Now that the the Yen is going up, gold is
being dumped to pay back the borrowed Yen. Gold should otherwise be good,
but it is troubled by the rise of the Yen.
Therefore swords are heading up.
On Gold:
The question is whether gold is or is not a form of money.
It was, so were sea shells. If it is not money then it is simply
another commodity and will not act as a reserve currency as some believe
it will. That said everyone should have some gold.
Warm regards Don
What about the economy? 9/24/07
Really bad - Things are bad. Bad government right now
- they're running it into the ground.
I just read Cheney's portfolio; he has a money manger
who is apparently no good, losing his money right and left. Regardless,
he's betting against the dollar - foreign bonds, foreign funds - he's betting
on the US going down.
Sword prices rising... 10/21/2007
The economy is fairly flat - no inflation except with
the very rich, specifically, the fine arts. Even Googling the fine arts
would should this.
Prices for fine arts are going up. Prices for swords,
the better swords and the sword market generally, therefore, will rise.
Treasury Policy Works to Support
World Hunger 4/28/08
Treasury policy for supports of the dollar actually function
to weaken the US dollar, internationally.
This translates as a cause of starvation in world. While,
at first, the trend towards the weak dollar began forcing investment dollars
into hard commodity markets such as gold an silver; now investment is pushed
for soft commodities. Because of the push for soft commodities, the continuing
protection of investment principles causes a rise in world food price.
The harm from the result of such policy becomes a real problem on
world food stocks.
What about swords?
Investing in swords, more like a hard commodity in this
case, is perhaps less harmful. -Less harmful and less volatile for sure.
It's a little moral thing. :-}
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